Sunday, April 22, 2012

How the ACC Stacks Up

I don't know about everyone else but I get irritated flipping back and forth between teams trying to figure out what exactly the ACC is bringing in.  More importantly, what are they bringing in compared to what are they losing. 

I came up with the following system to try and formulate a +/- rating for each team.  The scale will be based SOLELY on ESPN's evaluation of the player.  Players will receive a point value for how they were evaluated prior to joining the respective ACC team.  For example a 5 star player will receive 5 points and a player rated a 40 will receive 1 point.  Unfortunately, I haven't figured out how to insert an excel table so this is going to have to be a list rather than a chart.

MD (A)
  • Players lost:  Mosley (-4), Weiss (-1), Parker (-4) --- Total (-9)
  • Players added: Cleare (+4), Layman (+4), Smotrycz (+4), Mitchell (+3), Allen (+3), Cassell (+3), Dodd (+1) -- Total (+22)
  • Net Impact:  (+13)
Wake (A-)
  • Players lost: Mescheriakov (-3), Walker (-4), Chennault (-3), Desrosiers (-4) --- Total (-14)
  • Players added: Miller-McIntyre (+4), Moto, (+4), Rountree (+3), Thomas (+3), Cavanaugh (+3), Jones (+2), Washington (+2) --- Total (+21)
  • Net Impact:  (+7)
  • Players lost: Scott (-3), Zeglinski (-3), Sene (-3) --- Total (-9) 
  • Players added:  Anderson (+4), Nolte (+4), Tobey (+4), Jones (+2) --- Total (+14)
  • Net Impact: (+5)
NC State (A+)
  • Players lost: Painter (-4), Williams (-3), Johnson (-1), Raymond (-2) --- Total (-10)
  • Players added:  Purvis (+4), Warren (+4), Lewis (+4) --- Total (+12)
  • Net Impact: (+2)
UNC (A+)
  • Players lost: Barnes (-5), Marshall (-4), Henson (-5), Zeller (-4), Watts (-1), White (-2) --- Total (-21)
  • Players added:  Paige (+4), Johnson (+4), James (+4), Tokoto (+4) --- Total (+16)
  • Net Impact: (-5)
VA Tech (B)
  • Players lost: Hudson (-4), Davila (-3) --- Total (-7)
  • Players added:  Harrell (+4), Wood (+3) --- Total (+7)
  • Net Impact: (0)
Miami (B)
  • Players lost: Jones (-4), Grant (-3) --- Total (-7)
  • Players added:  Johnson (+4), Jekiri (+3) --- Total (+7)
  • Net Impact: (0)
GA Tech (B+)
  • Players lost: Rice (-3) --- Total (-3)
  • Players added:  Carter (+4), Hunt (+4), Bolden (+3), Heyward (+2) --- Total (+13)
  • Net Impact: (+10)
FSU (B+)
  • Players lost: Space (-4), Gibson (-4), Loucks (-3), Kreft (-1), Dulkys (-1), James (-1) ---Total (-14)
  • Players added:  Brandon (+4), Thomas (+4), Bookert (+3), Gilchrist (+1) --- Total (+12)
  • Net Impact: (-2)
Duke (B+)
  • Players lost:  Rivers (-5), Plumlee (-4), Gbinije (-4) --- Total (-13)
  • Players added:  Sulaimon (+5)
  • Net Impact: (-8)
Clemson (B)
  • Players lost:  Young (-2), Baciu (-2), Smith (-2), Narcisse (-1) --- Total (-7)
  • Players added:  Blossomgame (+4), Nnoko (+3), Filer (+3), Roper (+2), Smith (+2) --- Total (+14)
  • Net Impact: (+7)
BC (C+)
  • Players lost: Humphrey (-2)
  • Players added:  Hanlan (+3), Rahon (+2) --- Total (+5)
  • Net Impact: (+3)

So what does all this mean?  Well first off, Boston College sucks.  All of the seniors on their roster were walk ons.  They can't seem to bring in any players anymore.  Second, Turge is exactly the coach we needed to get this program back to an elite program.  With a +13 rating, MD's roster is improving the most out of any team in the ACC, Ga Tech a close second at +10.  Keep in mind that GA Tech really improves the most next year as Smotrycz has to sit out the year.  So MD's adjusted rating for next season is +9. 

The real surprise is UNC and Duke, both earning negative ratings.  UNC is losing 4 of their starting 5 and Duke is losing 2 starters, one being their best player.  Duke really had a poor recruiting year.  They needed to add a PF and missed out on their prospects.  It doesn't appear that Jefferson will pick Duke so I don't think their rating will change.  Keep in mind that Alex Murphy and the younger Plumlee will suit up next year, 2 players that we have yet seen play.  I still think Duke and UNC will finish in the top 4 of the ACC.

FSU's rating is somewhat misleading in my opinion.  James was by far a much better player than his rating projected.  Dulkys was undervalued as well.  In hindsight, James would have been a 4 star and Dulkys a 3 star so their adjusted rating is more along the lines of (-7). 

I used Adam Zagoria's transfer info so I'm pretty sure I captured everything.  If I am missing a player going pro please point it out so I can adjust the rating. 

My projected ACC finish for 2012.
  1. NC State
  2. MD
  3. Duke
  4. UNC
  5. Miami
  6. FSU
  7. UVA
  8. Ga Tech
  9. VA Tech
  10. Clemson
  11. Wake
  12. BC


  1. I'd love that. But for fun I'll give mine. Maybe we can look back on this at the end of the season.

    1. Duke
    2. NC State
    3. UNC
    4. Maryland
    5. Miami
    6. UVA
    7. FSU
    8. Ga Tech
    9. Va Tech
    10. Clemson
    11. Wake
    12. BC

    We agree on the bottom anyway. I think the league has to get over the stigma of Duke always winning. I dont think it happens this year. Coach K is great, even if the players are only good.

    1. Yea we are pretty consisent with our expectations. If MD finishes 2nd or 4th... either way I'm very pleased. Both outcomes result in an NCAA birth.

      I think GA Tech is going to improve over the next year or two. Robert Carter will get them back to being in the top half of the ACC.

    2. Id say Maryland, Miami, UVA and FSU are going to be the most interesting. Im interested to see how they all respond this year.

  2. I think MD and Miami battle it out for 2 spots between 3 and 5 in the ACC this year. UVA has a huge question mark over them as to who takes over for Mike Scott as the go to scorer. FSU loses a ton of senior leadership and production, but there bench wasn't bad and they have a decent freshman class coming in, so I'd say they'll finish around 6th in the league due to inexperience.

    MD *could* be good this year. It all depends on how big of an impact the freshman are able to make right away. If Layman, Cassell or Allen can provide the much needed outside shooting to go along with Stoglin, and either Mitchell or Cleare can make an impact inside, I say MD will fair pretty well in the ACC. The 2nd outside shooter is key though.

  3. Any chance you could add the ranking/evaulation for the players remaining at each school? This may provide a little better clarity to the whole team, not just the players leaving/staying.

    1. That could take some time. Good idea for a rainy weekend day. I will do that if you sign up for the blog and tell all your friends. Deal? Haha.